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Don’t expect impending institutional money 不要期待機構會入場

Retail investors have been expecting institutional money to spike the cryptocurrency market. In fact, there are more and more institutions or MNCs are work with the Blockchain space but on developing the blockchain technology itself or through holding equities of blockchain related companies. I will say there will be hardly any upsurge being triggered in the crypto market directly from these factors and I can assure you institutions will not enter the cryptocurreny market shortly under below reasons:

  1. Institutions will join in the blockchain market sooner or later, but not now. The industry to be honest is far from being developed and quoting what Pantera’s Dan Morehead said,”it is quite clunky for the institutions to step in.” So unless institutional grade custodians are well established,  we won’t see massive influx of money into the market.
  2. Institutions are conservative. This is a fact, institutions prone to earn less in lower volatility rather than losing money in large volatility. With the cryptocurrency market exhibiting large ups and downs, it is highly unlikely for the institutions to join in.
  3. To be frank, cryptocurrency market is too small. Let’s take a typical 1 billion hedge fund as an example, they can trade almost nothing unless holding bitcoin, let alone saying those multi-billion funds/institutions.  So unless the market size is large enough, don’t expect institutions will put in money in the cryptocurrency market.

So guys, stop day-dreaming about institutions pushing cryptocurreny market price further. I am pretty sure you will not able to see that happen in 1-2 years time.

PS: Just in case someone confused, blockchain industry doesn’t mean cryptocurrency market. There are also more reasons but forgive my laziness.

~Pay tribute to the world’s first blockchain fund with their office wallpaper featured. ~

 

零售投資者一直期望機構資金能夠推動加密貨幣市場,而事實上的確有越來越多的機構或者跨國公司正在推動區塊鏈領域,但他們是在直接開發區塊鏈技術或是投資區塊鏈相關的科技公司,而這類型的合作/投資基本上不會直接帶動加密貨幣市場。我也能很肯定的告訴你,機構基於以下的原因基本上短期內不會進入加密貨幣市場的。

  1. 首先,我其實認為機構投資者遲早都會進入加密貨幣市場,但現在肯定不會。老實說,加密貨幣行業現在距離完全發展還有很遠距離,引用Pantera的Dan Morehead所說的話就是 “機構要進入加密貨幣非常麻煩。”除非機構級託管人成熟起來,否則我們不會看到大量資金湧入市場。
  2. 機構是非常保守的。機構寧願在較低波動的情況下賺取較少的收益,都不想在大幅波動中冒風險而虧損。加密貨幣市場價格出大起大落,大多機構因此不會加入這個市場。
  3. 坦白講,加密貨幣市場太小了。以一直10億美元的對沖基金為例,如果這一隻基金進入加密貨幣市場,那除了持有bitcoin之外,根本什麼交易都做不了。除非市場深度足夠,否則不要期待有大量機構資金直接進入加密貨幣市場。

因此大家可以不需要太期待機構會入場帶動價格,我敢打賭在一到兩年時間裡面,這個情況是不會發生的。

~向全球第一隻區塊鏈基金致敬~

 

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